A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
